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1.
Bull World Health Organ ; 101(7): 487-492, 2023 Jul 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37397176

RESUMEN

Problem: Direct application of digital health technologies from high-income settings to low- and middle-income countries may be inappropriate due to challenges around data availability, implementation and regulation. Hence different approaches are needed. Approach: Within the Viet Nam ICU Translational Applications Laboratory project, since 2018 we have been developing a wearable device for individual patient monitoring and a clinical assessment tool to improve dengue disease management. Working closely with local staff at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, we developed and tested a prototype of the wearable device. We obtained perspectives on design and use of the sensor from patients. To develop the assessment tool, we used existing research data sets, mapped workflows and clinical priorities, interviewed stakeholders and held workshops with hospital staff. Local setting: In Viet Nam, a lower middle-income country, the health-care system is in the nascent stage of implementing digital health technologies. Relevant changes: Based on patient feedback, we are altering the design of the wearable sensor to increase comfort. We built the user interface of the assessment tool based on the core functionalities selected by workshop attendees. The interface was subsequently tested for usability in an iterative manner by the clinical staff members. Lessons learnt: The development and implementation of digital health technologies need an interoperable and appropriate plan for data management including collection, sharing and integration. Engagements and implementation studies should be conceptualized and conducted alongside the digital health technology development. The priorities of end-users, and understanding context and regulatory landscape are crucial for success.


Asunto(s)
Inteligencia Artificial , Atención a la Salud , Humanos , Vietnam , Factores de Riesgo
2.
Front Digit Health ; 5: 1057467, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36910574

RESUMEN

Background: Increased data availability has prompted the creation of clinical decision support systems. These systems utilise clinical information to enhance health care provision, both to predict the likelihood of specific clinical outcomes or evaluate the risk of further complications. However, their adoption remains low due to concerns regarding the quality of recommendations, and a lack of clarity on how results are best obtained and presented. Methods: We used autoencoders capable of reducing the dimensionality of complex datasets in order to produce a 2D representation denoted as latent space to support understanding of complex clinical data. In this output, meaningful representations of individual patient profiles are spatially mapped in an unsupervised manner according to their input clinical parameters. This technique was then applied to a large real-world clinical dataset of over 12,000 patients with an illness compatible with dengue infection in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam between 1999 and 2021. Dengue is a systemic viral disease which exerts significant health and economic burden worldwide, and up to 5% of hospitalised patients develop life-threatening complications. Results: The latent space produced by the selected autoencoder aligns with established clinical characteristics exhibited by patients with dengue infection, as well as features of disease progression. Similar clinical phenotypes are represented close to each other in the latent space and clustered according to outcomes broadly described by the World Health Organisation dengue guidelines. Balancing distance metrics and density metrics produced results covering most of the latent space, and improved visualisation whilst preserving utility, with similar patients grouped closer together. In this case, this balance is achieved by using the sigmoid activation function and one hidden layer with three neurons, in addition to the latent dimension layer, which produces the output (Pearson, 0.840; Spearman, 0.830; Procrustes, 0.301; GMM 0.321). Conclusion: This study demonstrates that when adequately configured, autoencoders can produce two-dimensional representations of a complex dataset that conserve the distance relationship between points. The output visualisation groups patients with clinically relevant features closely together and inherently supports user interpretability. Work is underway to incorporate these findings into an electronic clinical decision support system to guide individual patient management.

3.
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak ; 23(1): 24, 2023 02 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36732718

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a common viral illness and severe disease results in life-threatening complications. Healthcare services in low- and middle-income countries treat the majority of dengue cases worldwide. However, the clinical decision-making processes which result in effective treatment are poorly characterised within this setting. In order to improve clinical care through interventions relating to digital clinical decision-support systems (CDSS), we set out to establish a framework for clinical decision-making in dengue management to inform implementation. METHODS: We utilised process mapping and task analysis methods to characterise existing dengue management at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. This is a tertiary referral hospital which manages approximately 30,000 patients with dengue each year, accepting referrals from Ho Chi Minh city and the surrounding catchment area. Initial findings were expanded through semi-structured interviews with clinicians in order to understand clinical reasoning and cognitive factors in detail. A grounded theory was used for coding and emergent themes were developed through iterative discussions with clinician-researchers. RESULTS: Key clinical decision-making points were identified: (i) at the initial patient evaluation for dengue diagnosis to decide on hospital admission and the provision of fluid/blood product therapy, (ii) in those patients who develop severe disease or other complications, (iii) at the point of recurrent shock in balancing the need for fluid therapy with complications of volume overload. From interviews the following themes were identified: prioritising clinical diagnosis and evaluation over existing diagnostics, the role of dengue guidelines published by the Ministry of Health, the impact of seasonality and caseload on decision-making strategies, and the potential role of digital decision-support and disease scoring tools. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the contemporary priorities in delivering clinical care to patients with dengue in an endemic setting. Key decision-making processes and the sources of information that were of the greatest utility were identified. These findings serve as a foundation for future clinical interventions and improvements in healthcare. Understanding the decision-making process in greater detail also allows for development and implementation of CDSS which are suited to the local context.


Asunto(s)
Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas , Dengue , Humanos , Toma de Decisiones Clínicas , Dengue/diagnóstico , Dengue/terapia , Factores de Riesgo , Derivación y Consulta
5.
Front Digit Health ; 4: 997219, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36479189

RESUMEN

The decision on when it is appropriate to stop antimicrobial treatment in an individual patient is complex and under-researched. Ceasing too early can drive treatment failure, while excessive treatment risks adverse events. Under- and over-treatment can promote the development of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). We extracted routinely collected electronic health record data from the MIMIC-IV database for 18,988 patients (22,845 unique stays) who received intravenous antibiotic treatment during an intensive care unit (ICU) admission. A model was developed that utilises a recurrent neural network autoencoder and a synthetic control-based approach to estimate patients' ICU length of stay (LOS) and mortality outcomes for any given day, under the alternative scenarios of if they were to stop vs. continue antibiotic treatment. Control days where our model should reproduce labels demonstrated minimal difference for both stopping and continuing scenarios indicating estimations are reliable (LOS results of 0.24 and 0.42 days mean delta, 1.93 and 3.76 root mean squared error, respectively). Meanwhile, impact days where we assess the potential effect of the unobserved scenario showed that stopping antibiotic therapy earlier had a statistically significant shorter LOS (mean reduction 2.71 days, p -value <0.01). No impact on mortality was observed. In summary, we have developed a model to reliably estimate patient outcomes under the contrasting scenarios of stopping or continuing antibiotic treatment. Retrospective results are in line with previous clinical studies that demonstrate shorter antibiotic treatment durations are often non-inferior. With additional development into a clinical decision support system, this could be used to support individualised antimicrobial cessation decision-making, reduce the excessive use of antibiotics, and address the problem of AMR.

6.
Front Physiol ; 13: 1020458, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36439252

RESUMEN

Electrocardiogram (ECG) and photoplethysmogram (PPG) are commonly used to determine the vital signs of heart rate, respiratory rate, and oxygen saturation in patient monitoring. In addition to simple observation of those summarized indexes, waveform signals can be analyzed to provide deeper insights into disease pathophysiology and support clinical decisions. Such data, generated from continuous patient monitoring from both conventional bedside and low-cost wearable monitors, are increasingly accessible. However, the recorded waveforms suffer from considerable noise and artifacts and, hence, are not necessarily used prior to certain quality control (QC) measures, especially by those with limited programming experience. Various signal quality indices (SQIs) have been proposed to indicate signal quality. To facilitate and harmonize a wider usage of SQIs in practice, we present a Python package, named vital_sqi, which provides a unified interface to the state-of-the-art SQIs for ECG and PPG signals. The vital_sqi package provides with seven different peak detectors and access to more than 70 SQIs by using different settings. The vital_sqi package is designed with pipelines and graphical user interfaces to enable users of various programming fluency to use the package. Multiple SQI extraction pipelines can take the PPG and ECG waveforms and generate a bespoke SQI table. As these SQI scores represent the signal features, they can be input in any quality classifier. The package provides functions to build simple rule-based decision systems for signal segment quality classification using user-defined SQI thresholds. An experiment with a carefully annotated PPG dataset suggests thresholds for relevant PPG SQIs.

7.
Front Digit Health ; 4: 849641, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35360365

RESUMEN

Background: Symptomatic dengue infection can result in a life-threatening shock syndrome and timely diagnosis is essential. Point-of-care tests for non-structural protein 1 and IgM are used widely but performance can be limited. We developed a supervised machine learning model to predict whether patients with acute febrile illnesses had a diagnosis of dengue or other febrile illnesses (OFI). The impact of seasonality on model performance over time was examined. Methods: We analysed data from a prospective observational clinical study in Vietnam. Enrolled patients presented with an acute febrile illness of <72 h duration. A gradient boosting model (XGBoost) was used to predict final diagnosis using age, sex, haematocrit, platelet, white cell, and lymphocyte count collected on enrolment. Data was randomly split 80/20% into a training and hold-out set, respectively, with the latter not used in model development. Cross-validation and hold out set testing was used, with performance over time evaluated through a rolling window approach. Results: We included 8,100 patients recruited between 16th October 2010 and 10th December 2014. In total 2,240 (27.7%) patients were diagnosed with dengue infection. The optimised model from training data had an overall median area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) of 0.86 (interquartile range 0.84-0.86), specificity of 0.92, sensitivity of 0.56, positive predictive value of 0.73, negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.84, and Brier score of 0.13 in predicting the final diagnosis, with similar performances in hold-out set testing (AUROC of 0.86). Model performances varied significantly over time as a function of seasonality and other factors. Incorporation of a dynamic threshold which continuously learns from recent cases resulted in a more consistent performance throughout the year (NPV >90%). Conclusion: Supervised machine learning models are able to discriminate between dengue and OFI diagnoses in patients presenting with an early undifferentiated febrile illness. These models could be of clinical utility in supporting healthcare decision-making and provide passive surveillance across dengue endemic regions. Effects of seasonality and changing disease prevalence must however be taken into account-this is of significant importance given unpredictable effects of human-induced climate change and the impact on health.

8.
PLOS Digit Health ; 1(1): e0000005, 2022 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36812518

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Identifying patients at risk of dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is vital for effective healthcare delivery. This can be challenging in endemic settings because of high caseloads and limited resources. Machine learning models trained using clinical data could support decision-making in this context. METHODS: We developed supervised machine learning prediction models using pooled data from adult and paediatric patients hospitalised with dengue. Individuals from 5 prospective clinical studies in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam conducted between 12th April 2001 and 30th January 2018 were included. The outcome was onset of dengue shock syndrome during hospitalisation. Data underwent random stratified splitting at 80:20 ratio with the former used only for model development. Ten-fold cross-validation was used for hyperparameter optimisation and confidence intervals derived from percentile bootstrapping. Optimised models were evaluated against the hold-out set. FINDINGS: The final dataset included 4,131 patients (477 adults and 3,654 children). DSS was experienced by 222 (5.4%) of individuals. Predictors were age, sex, weight, day of illness at hospitalisation, indices of haematocrit and platelets over first 48 hours of admission and before the onset of DSS. An artificial neural network model (ANN) model had best performance with an area under receiver operator curve (AUROC) of 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.85) in predicting DSS. When evaluated against the independent hold-out set this calibrated model exhibited an AUROC of 0.82, specificity of 0.84, sensitivity of 0.66, positive predictive value of 0.18 and negative predictive value of 0.98. INTERPRETATION: The study demonstrates additional insights can be obtained from basic healthcare data, when applied through a machine learning framework. The high negative predictive value could support interventions such as early discharge or ambulatory patient management in this population. Work is underway to incorporate these findings into an electronic clinical decision support system to guide individual patient management.

9.
Antibiotics (Basel) ; 10(10)2021 Oct 18.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34680846

RESUMEN

In the last years, there has been an increase of antimicrobial resistance rates around the world with the misuse and overuse of antimicrobials as one of the main leading drivers. In response to this threat, a variety of initiatives have arisen to promote the efficient use of antimicrobials. These initiatives rely on antimicrobial surveillance systems to promote appropriate prescription practices and are provided by national or global health care institutions with limited consideration of the variations within hospitals. As a consequence, physicians' adherence to these generic guidelines is still limited. To fill this gap, this work presents an automated approach to performing local antimicrobial surveillance from microbiology data. Moreover, in addition to the commonly reported resistance rates, this work estimates secular resistance trends through regression analysis to provide a single value that effectively communicates the resistance trend to a wider audience. The methods considered for trend estimation were ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares regression with weights inversely proportional to the number of microbiology records available and autoregressive integrated moving average. Among these, weighted least squares regression was found to be the most robust against changes in the granularity of the time series and presented the best performance. To validate the results, three case studies have been thoroughly compared with the existing literature: (i) Escherichia coli in urine cultures; (ii) Escherichia coli in blood cultures; and (iii) Staphylococcus aureus in wound cultures. The benefits of providing local rather than general antimicrobial surveillance data of a higher quality is two fold. Firstly, it has the potential to stimulate engagement among physicians to strengthen their knowledge and awareness on antimicrobial resistance which might encourage prescribers to change their prescription habits more willingly. Moreover, it provides fundamental knowledge to the wide range of stakeholders to revise and potentially tailor existing guidelines to the specific needs of each hospital.

10.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 932, 2021 Sep 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34496795

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: To characterise the longitudinal dynamics of C-reactive protein (CRP) and Procalcitonin (PCT) in a cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 and support antimicrobial decision-making. METHODS: Longitudinal CRP and PCT concentrations and trajectories of 237 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 were modelled. The dataset comprised of 2,021 data points for CRP and 284 points for PCT. Pairwise comparisons were performed between: (i) those with or without significant bacterial growth from cultures, and (ii) those who survived or died in hospital. RESULTS: CRP concentrations were higher over time in COVID-19 patients with positive microbiology (day 9: 236 vs 123 mg/L, p < 0.0001) and in those who died (day 8: 226 vs 152 mg/L, p < 0.0001) but only after day 7 of COVID-related symptom onset. Failure for CRP to reduce in the first week of hospital admission was associated with significantly higher odds of death. PCT concentrations were higher in patients with COVID-19 and positive microbiology or in those who died, although these differences were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Both the absolute CRP concentration and the trajectory during the first week of hospital admission are important factors predicting microbiology culture positivity and outcome in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Further work is needed to describe the role of PCT for co-infection. Understanding relationships of these biomarkers can support development of risk models and inform optimal antimicrobial strategies.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Polipéptido alfa Relacionado con Calcitonina , Antibacterianos , Proteína C-Reactiva , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2
12.
JAC Antimicrob Resist ; 3(1): dlab002, 2021 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34192255

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Bacterial infection has been challenging to diagnose in patients with COVID-19. We developed and evaluated supervised machine learning algorithms to support the diagnosis of secondary bacterial infection in hospitalized patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Inpatient data at three London hospitals for the first COVD-19 wave in March and April 2020 were extracted. Demographic, blood test and microbiology data for individuals with and without SARS-CoV-2-positive PCR were obtained. A Gaussian Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network were trained and compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC). The best performing algorithm (SVM with 21 blood test variables) was prospectively piloted in July 2020. AUCROC was calculated for the prediction of a positive microbiological sample within 48 h of admission. RESULTS: A total of 15 599 daily blood profiles for 1186 individual patients were identified to train the algorithms; 771/1186 (65%) individuals were SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive. Clinically significant microbiology results were present for 166/1186 (14%) patients during admission. An SVM algorithm trained with 21 routine blood test variables and over 8000 individual profiles had the best performance. AUCROC was 0.913, sensitivity 0.801 and specificity 0.890. Prospective testing on 54 patients on admission (28/54, 52% SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive) demonstrated an AUCROC of 0.960 (95% CI: 0.90-1.00). CONCLUSIONS: An SVM using 21 routine blood test variables had excellent performance at inferring the likelihood of positive microbiology. Further prospective evaluation of the algorithms ability to support decision making for the diagnosis of bacterial infection in COVID-19 cohorts is underway.

13.
Clin Infect Dis ; 72(12): 2103-2111, 2021 06 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32246143

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: A locally developed case-based reasoning (CBR) algorithm, designed to augment antimicrobial prescribing in secondary care was evaluated. METHODS: Prescribing recommendations made by a CBR algorithm were compared to decisions made by physicians in clinical practice. Comparisons were examined in 2 patient populations: first, in patients with confirmed Escherichia coli blood stream infections ("E. coli patients"), and second in ward-based patients presenting with a range of potential infections ("ward patients"). Prescribing recommendations were compared against the Antimicrobial Spectrum Index (ASI) and the World Health Organization Essential Medicine List Access, Watch, Reserve (AWaRe) classification system. Appropriateness of a prescription was defined as the spectrum of the prescription covering the known or most-likely organism antimicrobial sensitivity profile. RESULTS: In total, 224 patients (145 E. coli patients and 79 ward patients) were included. Mean (standard deviation) age was 66 (18) years with 108/224 (48%) female sex. The CBR recommendations were appropriate in 202/224 (90%) compared to 186/224 (83%) in practice (odds ratio [OR]: 1.24 95% confidence interval [CI]: .392-3.936; P = .71). CBR recommendations had a smaller ASI compared to practice with a median (range) of 6 (0-13) compared to 8 (0-12) (P < .01). CBR recommendations were more likely to be classified as Access class antimicrobials compared to physicians' prescriptions at 110/224 (49%) vs. 79/224 (35%) (OR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.212-2.588; P < .01). Results were similar for E. coli and ward patients on subgroup analysis. CONCLUSIONS: A CBR-driven decision support system provided appropriate recommendations within a narrower spectrum compared to current clinical practice. Future work must investigate the impact of this intervention on prescribing behaviors more broadly and patient outcomes.


Asunto(s)
Antiinfecciosos , Programas de Optimización del Uso de los Antimicrobianos , Anciano , Algoritmos , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Antiinfecciosos/uso terapéutico , Escherichia coli , Femenino , Humanos , Prescripción Inadecuada , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina
14.
IEEE J Biomed Health Inform ; 24(5): 1439-1446, 2020 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31536025

RESUMEN

In type 1 diabetes management, maintaining nocturnal blood glucose within target range can be challenging. Although semi-automatic systems to modulate insulin pump delivery, such as low-glucose insulin suspension and the artificial pancreas, are starting to become a reality, their elevated cost and performance below user expectations is hindering their adoption. Hence, a decision support system that helps people with type 1 diabetes, on multiple daily injections or insulin pump therapy, to avoid undesirable overnight blood glucose fluctuations (hyper- or hypoglycaemic) is an attractive alternative. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven approach to predict the quality of overnight glycaemic control in people with type 1 diabetes by analyzing commonly gathered data during the day-time period (continuous glucose monitoring data, meal intake and insulin boluses). The proposed approach is able to predict whether overnight blood glucose concentrations are going to remain within or outside the target range, and therefore allows the user to take the appropriate preventive action (snack or change in basal insulin). For this purpose, a number of popular established machine learning algorithms for binary classification were evaluated and compared on a publicly available clinical dataset (i.e., OhioT1DM). Although there is no clearly superior classification algorithm, this study indicates that, by using commonly gathered data in type 1 diabetes management, it is possible to predict the quality of overnight glycaemic control with reasonable accuracy (AUC-ROC = 0.7).


Asunto(s)
Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1 , Control Glucémico/métodos , Aprendizaje Automático , Adulto , Algoritmos , Glucemia/metabolismo , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/tratamiento farmacológico , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/metabolismo , Humanos , Insulina/administración & dosificación , Insulina/uso terapéutico , Persona de Mediana Edad , Sueño
15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29568516

RESUMEN

Background: We developed a personalised antimicrobial information module co-designed with patients. This study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of this patient-centred intervention on short-term knowledge and understanding of antimicrobial therapy in secondary care. Methods: Thirty previous patients who had received antibiotics in hospital within 12 months were recruited to co-design an intervention to promote patient engagement with infection management. Two workshops, containing five focus-groups were held. These were audio-recorded. Data were analysed using a thematic framework developed deductively based on previous work. Line-by-line coding was performed with new themes added to the framework by two researchers. This was used to inform the development of a patient information module, embedded within an electronic decision support tool (CDSS).The intervention was piloted over a four-week period at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust on 30 in-patients. Pre- and post-intervention questionnaires were developed and implemented to assess short term changes in patient knowledge and understanding and provide feedback on the intervention. Data were analysed using SPSS and NVIVO software. Results: Within the workshops, there was consistency in identified themes. The participants agreed upon and co-designed a personalised PDF document that could be integrated into an electronic CDSS to be used by healthcare professionals at the point-of-care. Their aim for the tool was to provide individualised practical information, signpost to reputable information sources, and enhance communication between patients and healthcare professionals.Eighteen out of thirty in-patients consented to participant in the pilot evaluation with 15/18(83%) completing the study. Median (range) age was 66(22-85) years. The majority were male (10/15;66%). Pre-intervention, patients reported desiring further information regarding their infections and antibiotic therapy, including side effects of treatment. Deployment of the intervention improved short term knowledge and understanding of individuals infections and antibiotic management with median (IQR) scores improving from 3(2-5)/13 to 10(6-11)/13. 13/15(87%) reported that they would use the intervention again. Conclusion: A personalised, patient-centred intervention improved understanding and short-term knowledge of infections and antibiotic therapy in participating patients'. Long term impact on attitudes and behaviours post discharge will be further investigated.


Asunto(s)
Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Conocimiento de la Medicación por el Paciente , Atención Secundaria de Salud , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Actitud Frente a la Salud , Recursos Audiovisuales , Toma de Decisiones , Prescripciones de Medicamentos , Femenino , Grupos Focales , Personal de Salud , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Participación del Paciente , Proyectos Piloto , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Adulto Joven
16.
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak ; 17(1): 168, 2017 Dec 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29216923

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial Resistance is threatening our ability to treat common infectious diseases and overuse of antimicrobials to treat human infections in hospitals is accelerating this process. Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSSs) have been proven to enhance quality of care by promoting change in prescription practices through antimicrobial selection advice. However, bypassing an initial assessment to determine the existence of an underlying disease that justifies the need of antimicrobial therapy might lead to indiscriminate and often unnecessary prescriptions. METHODS: From pathology laboratory tests, six biochemical markers were selected and combined with microbiology outcomes from susceptibility tests to create a unique dataset with over one and a half million daily profiles to perform infection risk inference. Outliers were discarded using the inter-quartile range rule and several sampling techniques were studied to tackle the class imbalance problem. The first phase selects the most effective and robust model during training using ten-fold stratified cross-validation. The second phase evaluates the final model after isotonic calibration in scenarios with missing inputs and imbalanced class distributions. RESULTS: More than 50% of infected profiles have daily requested laboratory tests for the six biochemical markers with very promising infection inference results: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.80-0.83), sensitivity (0.64-0.75) and specificity (0.92-0.97). Standardization consistently outperforms normalization and sensitivity is enhanced by using the SMOTE sampling technique. Furthermore, models operated without noticeable loss in performance if at least four biomarkers were available. CONCLUSION: The selected biomarkers comprise enough information to perform infection risk inference with a high degree of confidence even in the presence of incomplete and imbalanced data. Since they are commonly available in hospitals, Clinical Decision Support Systems could benefit from these findings to assist clinicians in deciding whether or not to initiate antimicrobial therapy to improve prescription practices.


Asunto(s)
Antiinfecciosos , Biomarcadores , Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas , Farmacorresistencia Microbiana , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Máquina de Vectores de Soporte , Sistemas de Apoyo a Decisiones Clínicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Medición de Riesgo/estadística & datos numéricos
17.
BMC Med ; 14(1): 208, 2016 Dec 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27938372

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The inappropriate use of antimicrobials drives antimicrobial resistance. We conducted a study to map physician decision-making processes for acute infection management in secondary care to identify potential targets for quality improvement interventions. METHODS: Physicians newly qualified to consultant level participated in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim for analysis using NVIVO11.0 software. Grounded theory methodology was applied. Analytical categories were created using constant comparison approach to the data and participants were recruited to the study until thematic saturation was reached. RESULTS: Twenty physicians were interviewed. The decision pathway for the management of acute infections follows a Bayesian-like step-wise approach, with information processed and systematically added to prior assumptions to guide management. The main emerging themes identified as determinants of the decision-making of individual physicians were (1) perceptions of providing 'optimal' care for the patient with infection by providing rapid and often intravenous therapy; (2) perceptions that stopping/de-escalating therapy was a senior doctor decision with junior trainees not expected to contribute; and (3) expectation of interactions with local guidelines and microbiology service advice. Feedback on review of junior doctor prescribing decisions was often lacking, causing frustration and confusion on appropriate practice within this cohort. CONCLUSION: Interventions to improve infection management must incorporate mechanisms to promote distribution of responsibility for decisions made. The disparity between expectations of prescribers to start but not review/stop therapy must be urgently addressed with mechanisms to improve communication and feedback to junior prescribers to facilitate their continued development as prudent antimicrobial prescribers.


Asunto(s)
Antiinfecciosos/uso terapéutico , Actitud del Personal de Salud , Infecciones/tratamiento farmacológico , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina/estadística & datos numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , Comunicación , Toma de Decisiones , Humanos , Masculino , Médicos , Pautas de la Práctica en Medicina/normas , Investigación Cualitativa , Atención Secundaria de Salud/normas , Atención Secundaria de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos
18.
BMJ Open ; 6(10): e011040, 2016 10 31.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27799238

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To understand patient engagement with decision-making for infection management in secondary care and the consequences associated with current practices. DESIGN: A qualitative investigation using in-depth focus groups. PARTICIPANTS: Fourteen members of the public who had received antimicrobials from secondary care in the preceding 12 months in the UK were identified for recruitment. Ten agreed to participate. All participants had experience of infection management in secondary care pathways across a variety of South-East England healthcare institutes. Study findings were subsequently tested through follow-up focus groups with 20 newly recruited citizens. RESULTS: Participants reported feelings of disempowerment during episodes of infection in secondary care. Information is communicated in a unilateral manner with individuals 'told' that they have an infection and will receive an antimicrobial (often unnamed), leading to loss of ownership, frustration, anxiety and ultimately distancing them from engaging with decision-making. This poor communication drives individuals to seek information from alternative sources, including online, which is associated with concerns over reliability and individualisation. Failures in communication and information provision by clinicians in secondary care influence individuals' future ideas about infections and their management. This alters their future actions towards antimicrobials and can drive prescription non-adherence and loss to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Current infection management and antimicrobial prescribing practices in secondary care fail to engage patients with the decision-making process. Secondary care physicians must not view infection management episodes as discrete events, but as cumulative experiences which have the potential to shape future patient behaviour and understanding of antimicrobial use.


Asunto(s)
Antiinfecciosos/uso terapéutico , Infecciones Bacterianas/tratamiento farmacológico , Participación del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Atención Secundaria de Salud , Anciano , Infecciones Bacterianas/epidemiología , Infecciones Bacterianas/psicología , Comunicación , Toma de Decisiones , Farmacorresistencia Microbiana , Femenino , Grupos Focales , Humanos , Masculino , Investigación Cualitativa , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Adulto Joven
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